자연실업률 추정방법에 관한 연구

목차

Ⅰ. 머리말

Ⅱ. 자연실업률의 의의 및 추정방법
1. 자연실업률의 의의
2. 자연실업률 추정방법

Ⅲ. 한국의 노동시장구조 변화
1. 고용구조 변화
2. 노동공급구조 변화

Ⅳ. 자연실업률 추정 및 추정결과에 대한 평가
1. 자연실업률 추정
2. 자연실업률 추정치의 유용성 평가

Ⅴ. 맺음말

본문내용

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Lucas, Robert E., Jr. and Thomas Sargent, "After Keynesian Macroeconomics," Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review 3(Spring), 1979, pp. 1∼16.
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Mankiw, N. Gregory, 「Macroeconomics」, Worth Publishers Inc., 2000.
Modigliani, Franco & Lucas Papademos, "Targets for Monetary Policy in the Coming Year," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, No. 1, 1975, pp. 141∼63.
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<부록 1> 35∼39세 연령층의 경제활동참가율 및 실업률 추이
<35∼39세 연령층의 경제활동참가율 및 실업률 변동 추이>
(%p)
<35∼39세 연령층의 경제활동참가율 및 실업률 추이>
1980
1985
1990
1995
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
남성
경제활동참가율
97.3
96.5
97.0
97.0
97.0
96.3
96.1
95.7
95.2
실업률
4.8
3.2
1.7
1.7
1.8
6.1
5.2
3.5
3.3
여성
경제활동참가율
53.1
52.9
57.9
59.2
60.4
58.5
58.7
59.1
59.5
실업률
1.5
1.0
0.8
0.8
1.8
4.7
4.4
2.5
2.2
자료 : 통계청, KOSIS 통계DB
<부록 2> 성별·연령별 자연실업률
(%)
1980.Ⅰ∼1986.Ⅳ
1987.Ⅰ∼1997.Ⅳ
1998.Ⅰ∼2002.Ⅲ
남성
15∼19세
13.31
9.96
13.97
20∼24세
11.68
9.19
12.18
25∼29세
6.39
4.78
6.71
30∼34세
3.54
2.20
3.81
35∼39세
3.18
1.79
3.46
40∼44세
3.03
1.73
3.29
45∼49세
3.12
1.65
3.42
50∼54세
2.91
1.49
3.19
55∼59세
2.52
1.18
2.79
60세이상
1.02
0.47
1.12
여성
15∼19세
10.27
7.97
10.73
20∼24세
6.46
5.12
6.72
25∼29세
2.43
1.73
2.57
30∼34세
1.63
0.88
1.78
35∼39세
1.49
0.71
1.65
40∼44세
1.45
0.68
1.60
45∼49세
1.10
0.50
1.22
50∼54세
0.94
0.29
1.07
55∼59세
0.68
0.26
0.76
60세이상
0.28
0.10
0.32

키워드

실업률,   자연실업률의 의의,   한국의 노동시장구조 변화,   노동공급구조 변화,   자연실업률 추정방법,   자연실업률 추정